Anyway the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't officially start until June 1st but the last three years and four of the last six we've had a tropical system develop and get a name. The first name would be Alberto if this one develops.
Heavy rain is falling all across southern Florida at this hour. And that is going to be the main threat whether this turns into a named storm or not. Take a look at the upper left frame below.
The NHC as of this afternoon issued a tropical weather outlook on the system. It has a 40 percent of acquiring fully tropical or sub tropical characteristics for the next five days. A tropical cyclone is a warm cyclone with a warm core or mostly wet air all the way around the system. A sub-tropical cyclone is partially tropical and partially non-tropical. The typical part as you've guessed contains of very heavy rain and moist (green and blues on main panel) conditions fueled by the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and some thunderstorm activity is along and to the east of that.
The main panel is the water vapor. orange is dry air and blue and green is very moist of course.
But the non-tropical portion has an upper level trough of low pressure overhead and what that does is providing dry air (the oranges on main panel) a way into the system and that way the cyclone has a really tough time developing or getting lungs so to speak. Tropical cyclones tend to have high pressures overhead them instead of low pressures.
It is Florida and it is May so there is adequate moisture anyway but the million dollar question is, "Can it develop into a named storm before it gets to the coastline?" Both the GFS (Left Middle) and European Models (Bottom Left) (Two most used in figuring out tropical systems) both say not likely. They are within very good agreement with one another. 8pm Tuesday night and only a broad area of low pressure surrounds the Florida Panhandle.
Regardless of development, heavy rain maybe up to 6 inches in some cases are likely throughout the state in the next three to five days. Mostly welcome rain but we could see some minor street flooding if you get caught in a downpour.
Waves: Not high since 1. This would be a very weak storm if it develops into something and 2. It'll develop on the Gulf side of the peninsula.
Winds: Not high either. 20 to 25 mph maybe in gusts. Should be no problems with that too.
I'll come with an update tomorrow if it warrants. Just be aware that it's around but for the moment it doesn't look all that dangerous.
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