First Storm Of The Year

Almost two weeks ago, I stated that there was a pre-season storm to be named the last three years. Make it four because..

We have a new subtropical storm and its name is Alberto. The first storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed east of Cancun in a very weak steering environment. That's important because in about a day, it's going to move more to the north and northwest and eventually make landfall in the gulf coast somewhere as a fully tropical storm.


DISCUSSION... At this hour, Alberto is partially tropical and non-tropical. . A tropical cyclone is a warm cyclone with a warm core or mostly wet air all the way around the system. A sub-tropical cyclone is partially tropical and partially non-tropical. The tropical part as you've guessed contains of very heavy rain and moist conditions fueled by the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and a lot of thunderstorm activity is along and to the east of that as shown in the image below.

 The non-tropical portion has an upper level trough of low pressure overhead and what that does is providing dry air a way into the system and that way the cyclone has a really tough time developing or getting lungs so to speak. Tropical cyclones tend to have high pressures overhead them instead of low pressures.

Imagine yourself being a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center and the first part of the forecasting process is to identify the center, that's the easy part of this. Very exposed in the center with just a few clouds in a circular shape.

You'll also notice that almost all the thunderstorms are along and to the east of the center so Cuba, Florida and Georgia are going to get very heavy amounts of rain from this and once again, rain is the primary threat with this. The key messages from the NHC are below.

Right now, an aircraft is en route to the storm and will be back with information regarding Alberto sometime tonight. After that, the computer models that predict storms will have a much more detailed understanding and will be able to produce more accurate forecasts.

FORECAST... For the past three or four days, most of the models take Alberto and put the center between New Orleans and Panama City but remember from the discussion portion that people to the right of where Alberto makes landfall are going to have much greater impacts then to the left. 

Alberto is sitting and spinning right now because there is nothing yet to pick him up and steer to the north but in the next day, Alberto will begin to move to the north and northwest with time. It has about 36 hours after Saturday afternoon with low winds in the atmosphere and moist air to work with to strengthen perhaps. 

Regardless, the odds of Alberto becoming a hurricane are relatively small and all the impacts will be to the east. In order from most to least likely, here are the threats:

Very heavy rain up to 12 inches in spots
Gusty winds, perhaps damaging in the central Gulf Coast
Tornadoes/waterspouts popping up (One or more tornado watches will be issued)
Lightning (Not very common in tropical cyclones)

If the models come to validate, Alberto will be making landfall sometime Monday and will slow down causing heavy rain in the southeast.

Update tomorrow.

ESPN, UFC Sign Another Deal

ESPN Release
UFC Release
ESPN Part 1 (UFC Fight Pass)

The UFC after open bidding and discussions with ESPN, FOX and NBC have elected to go with ESPN for a five year, $750 million contract. The network apparently outbid FOX by over $100 million a year and here's what ESPN will get from the UFC starting in January 2019.

-  12 UFC PPV Prelims
- 30 UFC Fight Night Cards
  - 10 on ESPN Networks
  - 20 on ESPN+ (Up 5-8 from what was first announced)

The move from FOX to ESPN pretty much confirms that FOX will be the new home of WWE Smackdown. Here's the questions I have left that are either responded vaguely or not answered at all:

- Will the UFC allow fight cards on either ABC or ESPNEWS? FOX on an average has had four cards on the network FOX every year since 2012. ESPNEWS could be an overflow channel much like FX or FXX was. More on that later.

- Does the same schedule apply to let's say the 2017 season? ESPN through four networks and ABC have a ton of programming already committed (September-March). The only relieving of pressure so to speak on ESPN's side is that a new ACC Network will launch in 2019. The ACC takes up windows on ESPNU and can create a consequence of this:

ESPN has quite a bit of late evening windows for the Pac-12, Mountain West and BYU football. With the ACC taking the 3:30pm ESPNU slot most weeks, the Mountain West can move their games from late evening ESPN/ESPN2 to there and that the UFC can start the cards at 10pm ET.

Another possibility is that the UFC will try to swing the schedule more to a summer dominated one meaning that more fights will be from April to August then the other months.

- Can/will ESPN move fight cards from Saturdays to either Fridays or Sundays? Let's take a look:

 Fridays: ESPN almost always has a NBA game(s) or a college football game during the fall and winter so that is less likely unless ESPN does less NBA doubleheaders or spreads the NBA out more throughout the year.

Sundays: Slightly more reasonable. Still the NFL doesn't really like counter programming from other networks so if any occur, maybe the Sunday of Labor Day weekend could be open, also the Sunday after Thanksgiving might be looked at.

ESPNEWS I think will be used as a prelim airing for UFC Fight Nights on ESPN. That way ESPN/ESPN2 doesn't have to lose a slot during Saturdays for college football and/or basketball. Let's take a look at the fall 2017 UFC Schedule and see what we can get.

9/2/17 UFC Fight Pass card.
9/9/17 UFC on PPV. No slots appear to be open so maybe 8pm ESPNEWS.
9/16/17 UFC Fight Night card. With this, I'm not really impressed with the fights so this would likely be a ESPN+ exclusive.
9/22/17 ESPN showed a MLB game and UFC was in Japan. The prelims could air on ESPNEWS and the main events could air on ESPN at 10 or 11pm.
9/30/17 NONE
10/7/17 UFC on PPV. ACC game was on ESPN2, move that over to the ACC Network and the prelims could start at 8pm on ESPN2
10/14/17 NONE
10/21/17  UFC Fight Pass card.
10/28/17 UFC Fight Night. Much like 9/16/17 was, a lower end FS1 event, likely to ESPN+
11/4/17 UFC on PPV. This appears to be another ESPNEWS airing. No ESPN/ESPN2 slot in primetime had a ACC game.
11/11/17 UFC Fight Night. No late night ESPN window was used for CFB. The Fight Night card could be targeted for a west coast site, prelims at 8pm on ESPNEWS and the main event could be at 10pm on ESPN.
11/18/17 UFC Fight Night. Possible late evening ESPN window. It was in Australia so I would just start the event at 10pm ET on ESPN.
11/25/17 UFC Fight Night. Overnight. Whole thing on ESPN or ESPN2.

Another thing to consider here, UFC and ESPN/Disney have completely opposite ends of the spectrum regarded to political correctness and family friendly images. Will Dana White tone down a little or will put ESPN back in its place if need be? Could ESPN allow for a little more edginess when what's typically there in Bristol?

It's a very intriguing partnership and the first event between the two is still eight months away. Get your snacks prepared and ready to go.

Potential Tropical Cyclone In The Atlantic?

Wow, we didn't even hit May 15th and we already have tropical mischief. That's unfortunate.

Anyway the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't officially start until June 1st but the last three years and four of the last six we've had a tropical system develop and get a name. The first name would be Alberto if this one develops.

Heavy rain is falling all across southern Florida at this hour. And that is going to be the main threat whether this turns into a named storm or not. Take a look at the upper left frame below.

The NHC as of this afternoon issued a tropical weather outlook on the system. It has a 40 percent of acquiring fully tropical or sub tropical characteristics for the next five days. A tropical cyclone is a warm cyclone with a warm core or mostly wet air all the way around the system. A sub-tropical cyclone is partially tropical and partially non-tropical. The typical part as you've guessed contains of very heavy rain and moist (green and blues on main panel) conditions fueled by the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and some thunderstorm activity is along and to the east of that.

The main panel is the water vapor. orange is dry air and blue and green is very moist of course.
But the non-tropical portion has an upper level trough of low pressure overhead and what that does is providing dry air (the oranges on main panel) a way into the system and that way the cyclone has a really tough time developing or getting lungs so to speak. Tropical cyclones tend to have high pressures overhead them instead of low pressures.

It is Florida and it is May so there is adequate moisture anyway but the million dollar question is, "Can it develop into a named storm before it gets to the coastline?" Both the GFS (Left Middle) and European Models (Bottom Left) (Two most used in figuring out tropical systems) both say not likely. They are within very good agreement with one another. 8pm Tuesday night and only a broad area of low pressure surrounds the Florida Panhandle.

Regardless of development, heavy rain maybe up to 6 inches in some cases are likely throughout the state in the next three to five days. Mostly welcome rain but we could see some minor street flooding if you get caught in a downpour.

Waves: Not high since 1. This would be a very weak storm if it develops into something and 2. It'll develop on the Gulf side of the peninsula.

Winds: Not high either. 20 to 25 mph maybe in gusts. Should be no problems with that too.

I'll come with an update tomorrow if it warrants. Just be aware that it's around but for the moment it doesn't look all that dangerous.

UFC/ESPN Sign a New Deal. Questions left answered.....

UFC Release
ESPN Release 

As you may have heard by now, the UFC has signed a long term deal with ESPN+ to provide up to 15 events a year starting in 2019. The events are:

- Dana White's Contender Series (Tuesday Nights in the summer)
- 15 UFC Events a year (All the Fight Paas cards now and some lower end FS1 fights)
- Weigh In's
- Classic fights, best of's, compliations, etc..
- Exclusive content before PPV bouts


The deal, thanks to the LA Times is $ 150 million/year for 5 years. Also according to them, the linear/higher end portion of the contract is still being discussed with FOX and NBC. A few things/
observations:

1. If the report re: NBC involved is correct, then how many events does NBC get? The article stated that nearly 20 events a year are still unaccounted for. Does NBC get a even ten? Do those
events schedule around FOX's other commitments on weekends?

2. FOX and NBC do work together in NASCAR to a degree so this isn't 100% shocking but I couldn't have pictured that NBC would have room to carry UFC cards with the broadcast network and only
one, 24 hour, national sports network. Particuarly when NBC has this already.

Notre Dame football
NASCAR XFinity and Monster Energy Series
NHL (Tuesdays/Wednesdays/Sundays)
IndyCar (A lot of those races occur on Saturday nights)
NFL (Sunday Night)
Cycling (Tour de France)
Olympics (August 2020)
Premier League (Most occur on mornings though)
Hockey East (Friday Nights January-March)
IMSA (Coming in 2019)

Good news for NBC, a large amount of UFC programming will occur at night while most of the motorsports will take place during the daytime hours. Not as congested as FOX but still could be many 10pm ET fights. Not suitable for a lot of fans to wait all day.

More will be written later when the deal with FOX and likely NBC are done in ink. Back to ESPN:

Can they air events on ESPN (The TV Network)?: Nope, doesn't look like it. I honestly don't blame Dana White here because it's very rare for ESPN to be open on Saturday nights at any point of the year.

Also, a possible indirect reason why ESPN and UFC didn't sign a higher end deal is that the fact that ESPN showcases the Top Boxing Champions on weekends frequently (I'm not a fan of Boxing
so I can't tell you much of the organization) but with that, maybe the UFC didn't like the possibility of going against another fighting championship. Just a personal thought.


ESPN has been widely panned for not treating MMA/UFC as a real, legitimate sport (As Dana actually pointed out in 2011) Several years ago, there was a show produced by ESPN called MMA Live. It aired on Fridays at 1am and often delayed even further with live action such as college football or arena football.

With the increased exposure that ESPN has given the UFC with more discussions and interviews with fighters on SportsCenter and other shows, this is ESPN's chance to live up to their word and air/promote that biggest growing sport out there.

Moderate Risk Today

Haven't posted in over a moth so I own y'all one..

Complicated forecast today over the plain states. A moderate risk for portions of Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma though this evening. Storms are erupting west of Wichita and Enid and will move further south and east as the afternoon progresses.

Here are the tornado watches: Both are out until 10pm.

Hail Picture

In 12 years of living in Florida, I have never seen hail before. Today, I can mark it off the list. It was ping pong ball size where I was at. Crazy stuff.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Daytona Beach and Surrounding Areas

A severe thunderstorm capable of producing hail up to golfball size in diameter is across the Tiger Bay State Forest. If you're anywhere in the Daytona Beach area, this is a dangerous situation. Be inside and don't be in a car (If all at possible)

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
532 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Volusia County in east central Florida...

* Until 600 PM EDT

* At 532 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over DeLand
  Airport, or near DeLeon Springs, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
           roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach, DeLand and South Daytona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a
place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a small interior
room.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay
away from windows.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for east central
Florida.