Hurricane Lane 8/23/18

Hawaii is preparing and taking action to the biggest hurricane threat to strike the island chain in 26 years. The category 4 Lane is still packing winds up to 130 mph and one of the NOAA stations (buoys) are now in the eye of the hurricane. So valuable because aircraft can't fly into Lane anymore.

Satellite images present that Lane even though a massive area of wind shear to the southwest is impeding strength or development, it is still holding its own although it's fighting a losing battle.

All the islands have greater than 25 percent chance of receiving tropical storm force winds sustained through Sunday. On the present course, the center/eye of Lane will make its closest approach to the islands of Maui and Oahu Friday and Saturday. Rain is already falling on Maui and the Big Island with many areas of the Big Island already having a foot of rain in less than 24 hours.

Lane is moving north north-west at 7 miles per hour, a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2 days, followed by a near 90 degree turn to the left after that and weakening is likely starting tonight.

Key Impacts Re: Lane

1. Even though Lane will begin to weaken more rapidly tomorrow and Saturday until it loses hurricane strength (different models have different opinions about this), the storm will uncoil like a snake, it's going to weaken however will get bigger in size so more of the islands will be impacted.

2. Rain: All four major islands can get over a foot of rain, I was referring earlier to the total already near Hilo of 12 inches and with two more days of rain (at least) we can double that in higher elevations. There is a meteorological term called the Orographic lift in which mountains and hills could possibly get double the rain total that cities down low get. If Honolulu gets 10 inches then it's quite a possibility that higher levels receive 20 inches. Flooding doesn't exactly happen with the total of rain rather the rate of rain. It's a complex process.

Also much like landfalls in Haiti/Puerto Rico/Central America landslides and mudslides will be a major concern to deal with.

3. Surge: With a small center, surge will not be a huge concern but still Maui and Oahu can get two to four feet water inundation tomorrow night as the center passes by.

4. Wind: Again, the core is small so hurricane force winds sustained are very unlikely right now as I type this rather every island will get tropical storm force winds for at least 24 to 36 hours satrting right now. Today is really the last day to prepare.

5. Uncommon occurrence: Lane is the first major hurricane to be within 100 miles of its current position since Iniki (1992), that category 4 hit the western islands doing terrible destruction. Oahu and Maui have never had this big of a threat before.