Hail Picture

In 12 years of living in Florida, I have never seen hail before. Today, I can mark it off the list. It was ping pong ball size where I was at. Crazy stuff.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Daytona Beach and Surrounding Areas

A severe thunderstorm capable of producing hail up to golfball size in diameter is across the Tiger Bay State Forest. If you're anywhere in the Daytona Beach area, this is a dangerous situation. Be inside and don't be in a car (If all at possible)

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
532 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Volusia County in east central Florida...

* Until 600 PM EDT

* At 532 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over DeLand
  Airport, or near DeLeon Springs, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
           roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach, DeLand and South Daytona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a
place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a small interior
room.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay
away from windows.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for east central
Florida.

Highlands Storm Likely Producing A Tornado

A "Donut hole" in the radar shows a very likely tornado east of Sebring moving into the Kissimmee State Park and northern Okeechobee county as well.

No damage reported so yet in Avon Park or Sebring, which is great news since the two cities are quite populated.

Tornado Warning Highlands

A storm possibly producing a tornado near Sebring will move to Okeechobee county once it exits. Strongest rotation we've seen today.

3:15pm Situation

Tornado Watch remains in effect until 7pm for most of the northern half of the state. Conditions are still favorable for tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

The Current Radar:

Break down by NWS Office:

TAMPA: Strong line of storms along Tampa and Bradenton, those will move inland into Sebring and south of Lakeland within the hour.

MELBOURNE: Two severe thunderstorm warnings, one SW of Orlando and one east of there. Both will go very near the Space Coast and Port Canaveral. Other showers were across Lake, Volusia and Seminole counties.

JACKSONVILLE: Other storms are developing into severe storms northwest of Jacksonville and Gainesville. The cold front is far northwest of there. Wouldn't be shocked to see other convection here pretty soon.

The threat continues. In several more hours, temperatures will cool down and a northern breeze will take over and everything will be fine after that and weather looks a whole lot better Tomorrow.

Tornado Warnings for Orlando

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
232 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Lake County in east central Florida...

* Until 300 PM EDT

* At 231 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Groveland, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Lake County, including the following locations:
  Minneola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2857 8195 2863 8166 2859 8165 2850 8166
      2847 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 254DEG 48KT 2853 8187

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Combs
Tornado Warning
FLC095-117-201900-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0003.180320T1826Z-180320T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Seminole County in east central Florida...
  West central Orange County in east central Florida...

* Until 300 PM EDT

* At 224 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Windermere, moving east northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...College Park, Oak Ridge, Pine Hills, Winter
  Park, Azalea Park, Goldenrod, Union Park.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Edgewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2846 8162 2861 8162 2869 8124 2848 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 258DEG 30KT 2852 8155

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

Tornado Watch For Florida

There was a tornado warning for Daytona about 90 minutes ago, it had since moved out and didn't cause a tornado as far as we know.

However a tornado watch has been issued for most of northern and central Florida until 7pm tonight. The atmosphere looks loaded for a few tornadoes with a couple strong possible, damaging winds to 70mph and large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter are all in the forecast.

All modes of severe weather are likely within the watch area. Pay very close attention to the weather this afternoon. If a warning is issued, don't hesitate to take action.

Here's the watch:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0017_radar.gif

So I would like to tell you that it's over, it's actually just began.

Dangerous Day Today

* Not much has changed in our forecast for this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for most of the northern Florida, that includes Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Gainesville, Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. The maps is below.

1st Image: Overall Risk
2nd Image: Tornado Risk
3rd Image: Wind Risk
4th Image: Hail Risk

You can see the rough line of division is Interstate 4 (Daytona, Orlando and Tampa points north) HOWEVER thunderstorms do not know where these lines are, this is just a guideline. It doesn't indicate what could be in one county and not another, that's what a warning is for. Again, watches and warnings are much more important than this.

This is actually not a slam dunk forecast, but this is a very complex situation still. And the mesoscale (Small scale) features REALLY determine the severity of the outbreak and that we won't know until later today.

NOT every county in the enhanced/slight risk area will report severe weather but ANY county in it could. That is why it's critical to have a plan in place for today.

Don't cancel any plans for tonight or change them just yet but if you have any, make sure you're very aware of the situation at that very moment.

* Setup: This morning, a low pressure system is over Tennessee, a very favorable quadrant for severe weather (Southeast). Wind shear (Winds changing with height) are moderately strong so we're not expecting a big tornado threat unlike last night across Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee but a few tornadoes could still happen. Strong (Damaging) winds are a real possibility if not a probability at some point this afternoon. An enhanced risk means that there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point in the risk zone. That might seem low but for severe weather, that;s up there. Isolated hail (Ice Pellets) are possible but not widespread because of the mid-levels being relatively warm core.

* Timing: We thought it was going to be morning time for Daytona Beach but now it appears to be early afternoon. More precise windows are below
Jacksonville: 9am-2pm
Gainesville: 10am-2pm
Daytona Beach: 12pm-5pm
Orlando: 2-7pm
Tampa: 3-7pm
Sebring: 3-8pm
Melbourne: 3-8pm

Please give some elbow room (Allow an hour or two on either side of this.)

* Main Threats:
Damaging Winds (Especially in microbursts) up to 60 mph possible
Hail to 1.5 Inches in the strongest storms
Frequent Lightning
Heavy Rain
A few tornadoes possible

From NWS Melbourne:

Enhanced Threat of Severe Weather Across East Central Florida
This Afternoon and Evening...

A squall line is expected to develop ahead of a cold front and
move into areas northwest of I-4 early this afternoon. The line
will push southward with a potential secondary band of showers and
storms farther south over the Gulf moving rapidly eastward. This
will lead to numerous showers and storms pushing quickly toward
the east-northeast across east central Florida around 55 to 60 mph
through mid to late afternoon. This activity will then shift
south and offshore of the Treasure Coast by late evening.

Strong to possibly severe storms will occur with this activity.
Damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 70 mph and frequent lightning
strikes will be the main threat from any severe storms, but large
hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Make sure you
have a way of receiving timely severe weather watches and
warnings, should any be issued for the area.

* Misconceptions:
Are risk categories important? On the day of the event, not really. Thunderstorms don't know where those lines are. Just a guideline. Don't get too carried away by it.

Are mobile homes safe? NO!!! The reason why is that air can get underneath a mobile home and flip it. Mobile homes are not safe AT ALL during a weather situation. Evacuate them as soon as possible and find a more substantial shelter. Every person living in them should have a plan on what to do, whether it's 3am, 3pm, weekday, weekend, or holiday.

Are warning for entire counties? Also a no, warnings for not for entire counties, there are for sections of counties. Storm based warnings were adopted 10 years ago by the NWS to reduce the area warned. THERE IS NO REASON to warn an entire county. It does hospitals a disservice by stopping surgeries during a tornado warning 30-40 miles away in some cases and not moving towards the area. Also it created a false alarms for schools and citizens alike so when you hear a warning iss issued for where you live, you want to take it seriously.

Storms can't pack a punch early in the morning... Oh yes they can. Some of the most imfamous storms caused by damaging winds happened in the morning hours. The April 27 2011 outbreak over Alabama had a widespread wind event in the morning. Also several events in 2012 and 2013 rolled though Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maryland during the time frame. Severe storms can impact areas any time they feel like when conditions are correct.

Current Radar:

Pretty quiet at the moment. The storms that do develop in the Big Bend Region of the state (Near the Gulf) are the ones we really to watch out.


I can almost guarantee that we will be under some sort of weather watch (Not sure on Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado) later this morning as conditions destabilize.

This is a serious situation. Pay very close attention to the latest developments to it. if a warning is issued, don't hesitate to take action.

Plan now, make the decisions now, try not to get caught up in traffic, make decisions with respect to your family, house and where you work okay?

There is no reason to be scared. just follow along if a warning is issued, execute your plan. That is all.

* Links To Follow:
NWS Melbourne Twitter
NWS Melbourne Facebook
My Twitter
WFTV (Channel 9 Orlando) Weather
What To Do During A Severe Thunderstorm

Eastern Alabama Tornado (Large and Destructive)

Directly from the NWS Office in Birmingham

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
906 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALC029-200245-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180320T0245Z/
Cleburne AL-
906 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY...
       
At 905 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Mars Hills, or 12 miles west of Buchanan, moving east at
40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fruithurst, Muscadine, Mars Hills, Liberty Hill, Oak Level,
Sweetwater Lake and Coleman Lake And Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 8564 3377 8564 3378 8562 3379 8562
      3379 8560 3380 8560 3380 8559 3384 8559
      3385 8564 3388 8564 3388 8560 3389 8560
      3389 8553 3392 8553 3392 8539 3369 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 273DEG 35KT 3380 8541

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

87/GRANTHAM

Jacksonville, Alabama Tornado

We just had one very significant tornadoes that hit Jacksonville, Alabama about 15 minutes ago. It looks like another circulation is about to go though Jacksonville AGAIN so that's a double dip for them in the past few minutes. Think good thoughts for northern Alabama tonight.

PDS Tornado Watch For MS/AL/TN

From the Storm Prediction Center. This is very rare, you might see a PDS watch a few times 

every year from them. The map is down below. It will be a long night for them.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 13
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   325 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Alabama
     Northeast Mississippi
     Southern Tennessee

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Several severe storms will develop along a cold front
   through this evening producing strong tornadoes, very large hail,
   and damaging winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Tupelo MS to 45
   miles northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

Main cities included in Mississippi: Tueplo, Starkville, and Columbus.

In Alabama: Florence, Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, Tuscaloosa, Talladega, Huntsville and Fort Payne

Potentially Dangerous Setup Tomorrow

* Not much has changed in our forecast for tomorrow afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for most of the northern Florida, that includes Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Gainesville, and Daytona Beach. The map is below.

You can see the rough line of division is Interstate 4 (Daytona, Orlando and Tampa points north) HOWEVER thunderstorms do not know where these lines are, this is just a guideline. It doesn't indicate what could be in one county and not another, that's what a warning is for. Again, watches and warnings are much more important than this.

NOT every county in the enhanced risk area will report severe weather but ANY county in it could. That is why it's critical to have a plan in place for tomorrow.

Don't cancel any plans for tomorrow or change them just yet but if you have any, make sure you're very aware of the situation at that very moment.

* Setup: By Tomorrow morning, a low pressure system will be over Tennessee, a very favorable quadrant for severe weather (Southeast). Wind shear (Winds changing with height) are not terribly strong so we're not expecting a big tornado threat unlike today across Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee but a tornado or two could still happen. Strong (Damaging) winds are a real possibility if not a probability at some point tomorrow afternoon. An enhanced risk means that there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point in the risk zone. That might seem low but for severe weather, that;s up there. Isolated hail (Ice Pellets) are possible but not widespread because of the mid-levels being relatively warm core.

* Timing: Morning time for Daytona Beach. More precise windows are below
Jacksonville: 4-8am
Gainesville: 6-10am
Daytona Beach: 7-11am
Orlando: 10am-2pm
Tampa: 10pm-2pm
Sebring: 12-4pm
Melbourne: 11am-3pm

Please give some elbow room (Allow an hour or two on either side of this.)

* Main Threats:
Damaging Winds (Especially in microbursts) up to 60 mph possible
Hail to 1.5 Inches in the strongest storms
Frequent Lightning
Heavy Rain
A tornado or two possible

* Misconceptions:
Are risk categories important? On the day of the event, not really. Thunderstorms don't know where those lines are. Just a guideline. Don't get too carried away by it.

Are mobile homes safe? NO!!! The reason why is that air can get underneath a mobile home and flip it. Mobile homes are not safe AT ALL during a weather situation. Evacuate them as soon as possible and find a more substantial shelter. Every person living in them should have a plan on what to do, whether it's 3am, 3pm, weekday, weekend, or holiday.

Are warning for entire counties? Also a no, warnings for not for entire counties, there are for sections of counties. Storm based warnings were adopted 10 years ago by the NWS to reduce the area warned. THERE IS NO REASON to warn an entire county. It does hospitals a disservice by stopping surgeries during a tornado warning 30-40 miles away in some cases and not moving towards the area. Also it created a false alarms for schools and citizens alike so when you hear a warning iss issued for where you live, you want to take it seriously.

Storms can't pack a punch early in the morning... Oh yes they can. Some of the most imfamous storms caused by damaging winds happened in the morning hours. The April 27 2011 outbreak over Alabama had a widespread wind event in the morning. Also several events in 2012 and 2013 rolled though Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maryland during the time frame. Severe storms can impact areas any time they feel like when conditions are correct.


I can almost guarantee that we will be under some sort of weather watch (Not sure on Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado) Tomorrow morning as conditions destabilize.

Plan now, make the decisions now, try not to get caught up in traffic, make decisions with respect to your family, house and where you work okay?

There is no reason to be scared. just follow along if a warning is issued, execute your plan. That is all.

* Links To Follow:
NWS Melbourne Twitter
NWS Melbourne Facebook
My Twitter
WFTV (Channel 9 Orlando) Weather
What To Do During A Severe Thunderstorm

Another discussion tomorrow.

Strong/Severe Storms Likely Tuesday

Models are coming in good agreement that there will be a line of severe thunderstorms

on a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening. Damaging winds (Potentially a couple above

70 mph) is expected with this line. Read more below.

TODAY: Very nice. Highs around 80. Couldn't be a better day to end Bike Week across 

the region.

TOMORROW: The start of the day could be very quiet and on Monday afternoon, I wouldn't

be shocked to see storms try to develop out ahead of the line. Any storm that does form

will have gusty winds and potential to cause heavy rain and frequent lightning.

The SPC has Alabama/Georgia/Tennessee under an enhanced risk for Tomorrow. Tornadoes,

hail and high winds are all a likelihood for them. The map is below.

It includes Huntsville, Birmingham, Chattanooga and Nashville. The slight risk clips 

Jacksonville and portions of northern Florida. The marginal risk (Dark green) comes all

the way to Orlando and the Cape. 

TUESDAY: Will be the big day for severe storms across the peninsula. An enhanced risk

is issued for northern Florida and includes Gainesville, Ocala, Jacksonville, St.

Augustine and Daytona Beach. The map is below.

From NWS Melbourne:

One or two strong storms will be possible Monday afternoon north
of Orlando. Then a powerful squall line is forecast to push east
across central Florida on Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Bowing
segments along the squall line will be capable of damaging
straight line winds of 60 to 70 mph and frequent lightning
strikes. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible but will not be
the primary threat. The area of greatest concern covers Lake,
Volusia, Seminole, Orange, Osceola and Brevard counties during the
day Tuesday.

Pretty powerful language from an event that is still over 48 hours away if you ask me.

However, it justifies the situation. Pay very close attention to the weather Tuesday.

Much like in the discussion above, the primary threat will be damaging winds (espically

if the storms are solid and not cellular) and a tornado or two. It doesn't really

matter what risk you are in Tuesday, we all still have the potential for some significant

storms on Tuesday.

The main window appears to be from noon to 8pm. Please note that we could have storms

an hour or two on either side of this. Please don't worry or panic have a plan and you

will be absolutely fine. Make sure if you see this, tell you friends and neighbors

that Tuesday will be an active day around here.

If your county is under a severe thunderstorm warning Tuesday, you need to take more

precaution than you would on a normal summer day. These won't have dime size hail

and gusts to 40 or 50 mph with them. These could have gusts to 70 maybe 80 in them.

Take all safety measures needed.

As we get closer, let me give some resources that will help:

NWS Melbourne

NWS Melbourne Facebook

WFTV (ABC) Weather

What To Do During A Severe Thunderstorm

Another update tomorrow.

Day 3 and Day 4 Outlook: Florida Under Threat Again?

Out of my nerdism (Don't care if it isn't a word) I looked at the SPC Outlook because why not? Sure enough, Florida is a risk fro both Monday and Tuesday.

Here's Monday:

The 15% (Yellow) just clips the northern part of the state like Jacksonville. It'll be primarily after midnight for them. The hatched area (Black) represents significant severe potential over AL/GA/TN Chattanooga, Atlanta, Birmingham, and Huntsville.

But on Tuesday....

The 15% is right over Central Florida. After looking at parameters (Not going to bore you with them) it appears the primary threat will be damaging winds if a solid line of thunderstorms develop. Still over 72 hours away so just be aware. No reason to be worried or scared. This happens on a regular basis in March here.

NCAA Tournament Thoughts

Let's start with the most talked about topics:

• Middle Tennessee and St. Mary's: Should not have been granted a berth in the NCAA Tournament. I hate this fact but the committee is going to look at a Big 6 school than a teams like these every time. 

By not winning the Conference USA or the WCC, neither were guaranteed zero, zip. Don't look at them and feel sorry because both of them had far too many chances. MTSU played Princeton, Auburn, USC and Miami and went 1-3 in those four games. St. Mary's went 1-2 in the Wooden Legacy and didn't have any body of work in the non-conference part. Good choices by the committee if you ask me.

• USC: Should have been in. USC did their part until the final in their conference tournament. Yes I know that they had several ugly losses and I don't think the FBI probe did anything with it but they had two Top 50 OOC wins both on neutral courts (NMSU and MTSU). They would have a better chance than Syracuse.

• Louisville/Oklahoma State/Notre Dame: Louisville did it to themselves. Close out a 4 point game with nine tenths of a second AT HOME than we'll talk about you guys making the big dance. Lost to Syracuse at home didn't help either. Lost 3 out of the last 4 to close out the year too. OK State yes they've been a great story in year one under Mike Boynton but with a terrible OOC schedule, that put the Cowboys in massive trouble even before the committee met. The Fighting Irish did have a case with quality wins both OOC and in conference play however a lack of chemistry due to their injury bug I think cost them a spot in the end.

• Syracuse: Should not be in. In my opinion, the Orange did not do anything near the justification of them getting in. Losing to Boston College (A lot better this year) doesn't help any but where are their decent wins?? None that I've seen

• Davidson/San Diego State: Bid stealers. Beating SBU and Rhode Island for Davidson and defeating Nevada (San Diego State) were huge for the A10 and MWC and disastrous for teams like Notre Dame/USC/Louisville/St. Mary's.

• East Region: In my opinion it appears that Villanova and Purdue are on a course to meet in Boston two Sundays from now. Florida is a dark horse, wouldn't shock me to see them gone in the first round or make it to the elite eight. Texas Tech needs Keenan Evans healthy to make a decent run at it and it's unlikely but how about a WVU/Marshall Round of 32 matchup? Would make the state of West Virginia proud I bet. 

• West Region: Michigan is playing hot as anything right now. I personally like their chances of getting to San Antonio. Xavier has a relatively easy road until the second weekend (Particularly Ohio State and UNC/A&M/Michigan) North Carolina also will make a run to repeat as champions. If both Michigan and UNC make it to the Round of 16 look out for a classic. I like the Houston/San Diego State game a ton. both are clicking the right time.

• Midwest Region: Death. Taxes. Bill Self. Kansas getting to Omaha won't be easy because Seton Hall and NC State are two underseeded teams and both can match up well to KU. Clemson/NMSU and Charleston/Auburn are going to be the Round of 64 best matchups I feel. New Mexico State and Charleston can cause hell for both Clemson and Auburn. Time to see what NMSU is made out of. Michigan State should make it out of the first weekend and meet Duke. Both Rhode Island and Oklahoma in that 7/10 game are struggling to even make it to the airports to play a game much less win it.

• South Region: The most competitive region out of the four. Both Arizona and Kentucky have tough opponents in the first round and UK has to go to Boise to play them. Don't be shocked if Davidson is in the game at all against Kentucky. Virginia should easily defeat UMBC and Creighton/Kansas State and as long as either Arizona/UK make it ouf of Boise that Virginia/Arizona/Kentucky matchup will have quite a bit of hype to it. Cincinnati in my opinion has a great shot to make it all the way to the regional final. Miami is in a really tough spot to begin the Round of 64 (Loyola (IL)) and Tennessee is really dangerous so if it verifies, UT/Cincy should be a good game.

• Oklahoma and Arizona State: Both are in and should be. Don;t like either of them to advance but both teams have a ton of wins that have equity in them. Beating Xavier and Kansas away from Tempe means something even though you lost 11 out of the last 19. Oklahoma as a member of the Big 12 has 6 Top 35 wins and a win against Wichita State. Didn't see why so many people wanted them out of the bracket.

Everyone complains about what matchup, what location, what teams, what broadcasters they're struck in. And it ends up being a great tournament EVERY SINGLE YEAR does it not?? Stop bitching, play basketball and maybe you win a game or two. It's not supposed to be easy

No Severe Weather expected

The good news is that the SPC has trimmed the marginal risk farther back and now includes extreme western Florida and the panhandle. The slight risk is for areas of Louisiana and Mississippi (New Orleans/Gulfport/Biloxi)

The line of thunderstorms should arrive at somepoint tonight or tomorrow morning. Heavy rain and gusty winds are the primary hazards but no severe weather expected.

Here is the line of storms across Mississippi and Alabama. No severe thunderstorm warnings exist along it.

NCAA Bracket 3/11/18

NCAA Tournament: 3/11/18

Seed list of teams going (projected) to the NCAA Tournament. AQ's are in bold.

Version 1 (If Rhode Island wins)

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier

2: Michigan State, Cincinnati, Duke, North Carolina

3: Purdue, Michigan, West Virginia, Auburn

4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Clemson

5: Wichita State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Florida

6: Miami (FL), Kentucky, Houston, Rhode Island

7: Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, TCU

8: Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, NC State, Arkansas

9: Florida State, Nevada, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State

10: Alabama, Providence, USC, Missouri

11: St. Mary's, Arizona State/Oklahoma, UCLA/Louisville, Buffalo

12: Loyola (IL), New Mexico State, San Diego State, Charleston

13: Murray State, UNC-Greensboro, South Dakota State, Bucknell

14: Montana, Penn/Harvard (15/16 seed if HARV wins), Georgia State/UT Arlington (Both would be a 14 seed), Marshall

15: Stephen F Austin, Wright State, Lipscomb, Iona

16: UMBC, Radford, NC Central/CS Fullerton, Texas Southern/LIU Brooklyn

Last Four Byes: Providence, USC, Missouri, St. Mary's

Last Four In: UCLA, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Louisville

First Four Out: Texas, Baylor, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame

Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Marquette, Nebraska, Syracuse

Under Consideration: Utah, Penn State, Washington, Mississippi State, Old Dominion, Boston College, LSU, Davidson, Boise State, Western Kentucky

By Conference

ACC 9
SEC 8

Big 12 6

Big East 6

Pac-12 4

Big Ten 4

American 3

WCC 2

Atlantic Ten 2

Mountain West 2

Version 2 (If Davidson wins)

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier

2: Michigan State, Cincinnati, Duke, North Carolina

3: Purdue, Michigan, West Virginia, Auburn

4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Clemson

5: Wichita State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Florida

6: Miami (FL), Kentucky, Houston, TCU

7: Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, Arkansas

8: Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, NC State, Rhode Island

9: Florida State, Nevada, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State

10: Alabama, Providence, USC, Missouri

11: Arizona State/Oklahoma, St. Mary's/UCLA, Buffalo, Loyola (IL)

12: New Mexico State, San Diego State, Charleston, Murray State

13: UNC-Greensboro, South Dakota State, Bucknell, Davidson

14: Montana, Penn/Harvard (15/16 seed if HARV wins), Georgia State/UT Arlington (Both would be a 14 seed), Marshall

15: Stephen F Austin, Wright State, Lipscomb, Iona

16: UMBC, Radford, NC Central/CS Fullerton, Texas Southern/LIU Brooklyn

Last Four Byes: Alabama, Providence, USC, Missouri

Last Four In: St. Mary's, Arizona State, Oklahoma, UCLA

First Four Out: Louisville, Texas, Baylor, Middle Tennessee

Next Four Out: Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Nebraska

Under Consideration: Syracuse, Utah, Penn State, Washington, Mississippi State, Old Dominion, Boston College, LSU, Boise State, Western Kentucky

By Conference

ACC 8
SEC 8

Big 12 6

Big East 6

Pac-12 4

Big Ten 4

American 3

Atlantic Ten 3

WCC 2

Mountain West 2

Update

Really and truly I don't see any big severe weather event tomorrow. Pay attention to any warning issued though and listen to them. If you're outdoors tomorrow, be prepared to get wet. Scroll down to get a more detailed outlook. Thanks

Sunday/Monday Storms Likely (A Couple Severe)

Not much has changed in the outlook for Tomorrow. We are still under a marginal risk (the lowest of the severe weather categories). The detailed map is below:

The main threats are:

• Gusty Winds (In heavy downpours)
• Lightning
• Small Hail (Mid Atmospheric temperatures are very cold)
• Isolated Tornado/Waterspout
• Heavy Rain

Cities:

• Pensacola
• Talahassee
• Destin
• Panama City
• Live Oak
• Gainesville
• Ocala
• Jacksonville
• St. Augustine
• Daytona Beach
• Sanford
• Melbourne
• Orlando
• Tampa
• Bradenton
• Sebring

Timing:

• For any cellular storms late tomorrow morning to tomorrow night. Any storm that forms can have some gusty winds and small hail with them 
• Don't expect the IndyCar race to get in tomorrow but maybe the storms will be scattered enough that they could be a window.
• The line of storms should run through the state Monday morning. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the hazards.

NCAA Bracket 3/10/18

NCAA Tournament: 3/10/18

Seed list of teams going (projected) to the NCAA Tournament. AQ's are in bold.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Purdue

2: Xavier, Cincinnati, Duke, North Carolina

3: Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia, Auburn

4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Clemson

5: Wichita State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Florida

6: Miami (FL), Kentucky, Houston, Rhode Island, Nevada

7: Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, TCU

8: Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, NC State, Arkansas

9: Florida State, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Missouri

10: Alabama, Providence, USC, St. Mary's

11: Nevada, Arizona State/Baylor, UCLA/Louisville, Western Kentucky

12: Buffalo, Loyola (IL), UL-Lafayette, New Mexico State

13: Vermont, Murray State, UNC-Greensboro, South Dakota State

14: San Diego State, Bucknell, Charleston, Penn

15: Montana, Wright State, Iona, Lipscomb

16: UC Irvine, Radford, Hampton/SE Louisiana, UAPB/LIU Brooklyn

Last Four Byes: Providence, USC, St. Mary's, Nevada

Last Four In: UCLA, Louisville, Baylor, Arizona State

First Four Out: Texas, Oklahoma, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame

Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Marquette, Nebraska, Syracuse

Under Consideration: Utah, Penn State, Washington, Mississippi State, Old Dominion, Boston College, LSU, Davidson, Boise State

By Conference

ACC 9
SEC 8

Big 12 6

Big East 6

Pac-12 4

Big Ten 4

American 3

WCC 2

Atlantic Ten 2

Mountain West 2

Day 2 Outlook: FL Still Under A Marginal Risk

The Day 2 outlook per SPC has most of the state under a marginal risk

No real changes to the forecast for tomorrow. Damaging winds and maybe a tornado are the main threats.

Change of timing of Severe Weather Sunday Now Into Monday?

SATURDAY: Weather should be very nice. high near 70 and if you're out during Bike Week or going to the Supercross race, have gun and don't expect any issues.

SUNDAY:
The NAM model is considerably slower this run than in past runs so for now the window for storms (strong, a few severe) could be for noon Sunday to 2pm Monday. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any supercells Sunday/Sunday night have at least an isolated tornado threat. If you're at the IndyCar race at St. Petersburg don't expect the race to get it in Sunday.

2pm Sunday: The storms should begin first across the panhandle and south Florida. Central Florida could start off the day pretty dry.

8pm Sunday: A line of thunderstorms should develop across the panhandle (the helicity/wind shear) values are co-lined with the line, (a tornado or two can occur there)

2am Monday: The line is slow to get through so storms can still go severe along and ahead of the main line. It could approach near Jacksonville by this time.

8am Monday: The line will be near the Interstate 4 corridor by rush hour. Some strong storms are likely. pay attention especially to the overnight storms

2pm Monday: The storms should progress out of the state by then, it'll be noticeably cooler by Monday night/Tuesday with a north wind.

The main threats will be

• Damaging Winds (Sunday night into Monday)
• Lightning (Sunday-Monday)
• Isolated tornadoes (Any storms that develop out ahead of a line and in the line itself across the panhandle)
• Heavy rain

Timing

• Isolated storms from 2-9pm Sunday and the line from 2am-noon Monday. These are windows and could slightly change

Cities/Locations

• North Florida
• South Georgia
• Jacksonville
• Orlando
• Tampa
• Daytona Beach
• Tallahassee
• Valdosta
• Brunswick
• Melbourne
• Ocala
• Gainsville

What We Know:

• Storms will develop Sunday night into Monday morning

What We Don't Know:

• Exactly what locations will be hit
• Concrete hours of threat of storms
• Difference in models

There is no reason to worry/panic. Just have a plan and you'll be okay. Have a way of getting a warning (Other than here) and make sure people know.

The SPC will issue a Day 2 outlook early tomorrow morning, we'll see if they introduce a slight risk for us or not.

Another update Tomorrow morning.

NCAA Bracket 3/9/18

NCAA Tournament: 3/9/18

Seed list of teams going (projected) to the NCAA Tournament. AQ's are in bold.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas

2: Purdue, Cincinnati, Duke, Auburn

3: Michigan State, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio State

4: Tennessee, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Clemson

5: Wichita State, Gonzaga, Arizona, Florida

6: Miami (FL), Kentucky, Houston, Nevada

7: Creighton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, TCU

8: Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, NC State, Butler, 

9: Florida State, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arkansas

10: St. Mary's, Missouri, USC, UCLA

11: Arizona State, Providence, Oklahoma/Alabama, Baylor/Louisville

12: Western Kentucky, Buffalo, Loyola (IL), UL-Lafayette

13: New Mexico State, Murray State, UNC-Greensboro, South Dakota State

14: Vermont, Bucknell, Charleston, Penn

15: Montana, Wright State, Iona, Lipscomb

16: UC Davis, Radford, Hampton/SE Louisiana, UAPB/LIU Brooklyn

Last Four Byes: USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Providence, 

Last Four In: Alabama, Louisville, Baylor, Oklahoma

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Texas, Marquette, Notre Dame, 

Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Syracuse, Mississippi State

Under Consideration: Utah, Penn State, Washington, Old Dominion

By Conference

ACC 9

Big 12 8

SEC 8

Big East 6

Pac-12 4

Big Ten 4

American 3

WCC 2

Atlantic Ten 2

Florida Under A Marginal Risk Sunday (Upgrade to Slight Tomorrow??)

Conditions can come together for a possible episode of severe weather somewhere on the Florida Peninsula over Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Depends on which model you look at. The two big ones have different answers:

Our question from last night has been answered. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Florida and southern Georgia under a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday. Just because they've done that doesn't mean the chance is minor. There is still a possible upgrade to a slight (standard) risk as the event gets closer in from the text in the outlook stated here:

Will introduce 5% severe probs for this scenario but a
   SLGT risk may be warranted for this region if confidence increases
   regarding this scenario.

Here's the Day 3 Outlook Map

... BUT NICE TOMORROW/SATURDAY: While most of the attention will be focused on the Sunday afternoon/evening event, the good news is that we will enjoy some calm weather for the next 48 hours. We are starting the day mostly in the 40s, but we rise into the 60s this afternoon. Pretty much the same deal on Saturday. The race at Daytona International Speedway Saturday night still could have some clouds but no organized storms expected.

GFS: 

The GFS (American) model at 12pm Sunday (top image) shows the pattern at 500 mb (20,000 feet up in the atmosphere) a closed low south of St. Louis and energy coming from the northwest down through Mississippi/Alabama and Georgia. The CAPE (Instability) (It's on the top left) has leveled off now, the helicity has done the same and the Rain (Bottom left) doesn't show much which is indicative of isolated storms developing out ahead of the cold front.

4pm Sunday (Second Image) has the 500 Mb low open in the Missouri Valley (a good thing because when a low pressure is opened it can't dominate the weather pattern unlike otherwise) the instability is still present across the Florida area, the helicity is displaced from that (Also a good thing, those two want to be co-located together to get severe weather underway) and the reflectivity still has a broken pattern to it.

8pm Sunday (Third Image) has the 500mb low still open and pulling away from the southeast. The cold front if this is correct should start to come through late Sunday night and Monday morning. 

If the GFS is correct, north Florida and southern Georgia will be under the risk more than the other parts of the state. But there is another model to look at....

NAM:

2pm Sunday: The 500mb low is over Missouri/Illinois much like the GFS. The instability values are creeping up on the peninsula (especially western part), the helicity is over north Florida (west of Jacksonville) and the projected radar has a line in the panhandle but any storms that develop out ahead of it will have the chance to go supercelluar and have a threat of large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two.

8pm Sunday: The low begins to break apart but is still over Missouri and energy coming through all of the southern states. The air still is unstable across Florida and the wind shear is still present. the cold front has barely moved from its previous spots,

2am Monday: The cold front should start to clear the area from northwest to southeast. if this is right, the southern part of the state will have a severe weather threat Monday too.

One good thing about this run is that the significant tornado parameter (STP) and the supercell composite index values have come down some. This indicates that there is still lack of model run to run continuity so wouldn't be surprising to see this go back up later tonight.

The NAM is more aggressive of the potential (much like last night) but we are still two days away from the thing. No reason to get nervous about it yet. Just have a plan if severe weather strikes and if there is a warning, execute it.

The timing is the most important because if the dynamics are there during the daylight hours, all of the energy will be available but if it's too far north or waits until nighttime, maybe it'll just be a marginal day. We shall see.  Still questions persist of when/how/where/why, but there is a chance there could be a severe weather event in the state Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, so keep an eye on these discussions as we get closer to the event. Remember also this is race weekend at St. Petersburg, so thousands of people will be out on the streets.

The timing appears to be from late morning Sunday to about 2-4am Monday morning but I will finetune a closer window in about 24-36 hours from now.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday should be much like Tomorrow. Lows in the 40s with highs in the 60s, clear skies with a north breeze. Unseasonably cool for sure.

FIRE WEATHER: One more day of low humidity will keep the fire danger/outlook high across the area. Don't do anything stupid out there and if a fire develops, it could spread pretty rapidly particularly inland.