Hurricane Lane 8/23/18

Hawaii is preparing and taking action to the biggest hurricane threat to strike the island chain in 26 years. The category 4 Lane is still packing winds up to 130 mph and one of the NOAA stations (buoys) are now in the eye of the hurricane. So valuable because aircraft can't fly into Lane anymore.

Satellite images present that Lane even though a massive area of wind shear to the southwest is impeding strength or development, it is still holding its own although it's fighting a losing battle.

All the islands have greater than 25 percent chance of receiving tropical storm force winds sustained through Sunday. On the present course, the center/eye of Lane will make its closest approach to the islands of Maui and Oahu Friday and Saturday. Rain is already falling on Maui and the Big Island with many areas of the Big Island already having a foot of rain in less than 24 hours.

Lane is moving north north-west at 7 miles per hour, a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2 days, followed by a near 90 degree turn to the left after that and weakening is likely starting tonight.

Key Impacts Re: Lane

1. Even though Lane will begin to weaken more rapidly tomorrow and Saturday until it loses hurricane strength (different models have different opinions about this), the storm will uncoil like a snake, it's going to weaken however will get bigger in size so more of the islands will be impacted.

2. Rain: All four major islands can get over a foot of rain, I was referring earlier to the total already near Hilo of 12 inches and with two more days of rain (at least) we can double that in higher elevations. There is a meteorological term called the Orographic lift in which mountains and hills could possibly get double the rain total that cities down low get. If Honolulu gets 10 inches then it's quite a possibility that higher levels receive 20 inches. Flooding doesn't exactly happen with the total of rain rather the rate of rain. It's a complex process.

Also much like landfalls in Haiti/Puerto Rico/Central America landslides and mudslides will be a major concern to deal with.

3. Surge: With a small center, surge will not be a huge concern but still Maui and Oahu can get two to four feet water inundation tomorrow night as the center passes by.

4. Wind: Again, the core is small so hurricane force winds sustained are very unlikely right now as I type this rather every island will get tropical storm force winds for at least 24 to 36 hours satrting right now. Today is really the last day to prepare.

5. Uncommon occurrence: Lane is the first major hurricane to be within 100 miles of its current position since Iniki (1992), that category 4 hit the western islands doing terrible destruction. Oahu and Maui have never had this big of a threat before.

Beryl 7/6/18 and Potential Cyclone off NC Coast?

Beryl became the first hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season overnight and there has been changes to the initial forecast at the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

And we have a disturbance that could be a tropical depression or named storm in the next few days.

Up above is the 5 day forecast for Beryl. A couple things to note:

1. As you will see in the satellite image in a minute, Beryl is a very small storm comapred to normal standards.

2. The forecast does not have Beryl making it though Wednesday. What does that mean? Here's the deal:

A. It will engage in either Hispaniola or Cuba, making it weak and with its size, those islands that have mountains and hills will tear the circulation up.

B. Shear (Wind in the air) gets control of Beryl and ripping it to pieces before it gets to those bigger islands.

C. It dodges both shear and the islands and becomes a threat toward Jamaica or the Cayman Islands in the middle of the next week.

I'm leaning toward A at the moment. Certainly Cuba is a big enough island to tear apart a storm, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also large.

Past five days if/whatever is left will be headed north near the Bahamas as a weather pattern will pick it up and make it turn north and northeast. When it does that, the timing for the turn will be critical to whether effects will be felt in one nation or the other.

Of course, none of that matters if Beryl doesn't survive.

What you are looking at is the satellite image. If you look at it closely, right under the cloud break below the outflow, that's where the center of it is. It hasn't popped out an eye yet (Typically when hurricanes get higher at category 1 range, an eye will start to be seen, it hasn't happened yet)

HERE AND NOW

Strength: 80 mph, category 1
Movement: West at 15 mph (It's moving briskly)
Location: Near 1,000 miles away from Barbados and St. Lucia
Intensity: 994 mb (The lower the pressure, stronger or broader the storm is)

IMPACT
This will greatly depend on whether Beryl can make it to the Lesser Antilles or not. Either way, rain and wind will be on the rise for islands like Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, Barbados and others.

It is looking more likely that it will make it though those islands as a tropical disturbance. Water won't be the concern with this (Regarding water rise) but rain and wind could be (at least rain)

Beryl will roll though the islands Sunday night and Monday. Hurricane/Tropical Storm watches could be put up later today if required.

NORTH CAROLINA FEATURE

A cluster of thunderstorms has a high chance (80%) of forming in the next five days. It will drift toward the Carolinas this weekend and might sit and spin for a day or two next week before it gets picked up and taken out to sea.

My Thoughts On Political Developments

Man, man, man good fucking job liberals. Excellent job.

That was 100% sarcastic if you need to know that. By now, I'm sure we saw the video about a guy attacking a person at a Whataburger for wearing "Make America Great Again" hat. What the fuck is going on out here with you all? Let's dive into the subject shall we?

1. All you are going to do is for people to see that and stay away from you and vote either Independent and Republican.

2. How do you all get so mindfucked over a hat?? Seriously, the guy supports a dude that you don't. Get over it. You lost in November 2016 this is July 5th 2018. Give me a break.

3. We (the general population that has a brain) are tired of being called racists when we are not, a nazi when we are not and scumbags when we are not. Yes there is shady people on the right.

Disclaimer: I'm not a democrat, I'm not a republican. I'm an independent. I independently look at every fucking thing and develop my own fucking opinion.

When is the people on the left going to realize all they're doing and switching people away from you and you're not doing any favors to anyone? You gave something for Trump to tweet and look and say "See? This is why we got to go and prove these guys wrong."

In November, I can assure you if the Democrats lose more seats in the congress, they will be rioting in the streets and killing people because YOU FUCKING LOST. Much like a sporting game, a bingo contest, a drinking event, there's a loser. YOU ARE NOT GOING TO GET YOUR WAY EVERY TIME. Yeah, good deal.

Will the Republicans riot? I'm 60/40 no on that. Didn't do it when Obama won both terms, also in 2006 when the Democrats gained majority control.

Listen, Democrats. You are not all bad people. Just have different opinions then the other party. Had someone contend to me last night that America hates us. Three things:

1. Sore losers: How many times did we see CNN, MSNBC and even FOX tell you Trump is Hilter and all that? It's really not your fault most of you because the media fed it to you but you got Maxime Waters calling for attacks on Republicans. We got Nancy Pelosi saying goofy ass shit all day and we have Rosie O'Donnell calling for Martial Law. FOR WHAT??

Granted there are Republicans that say BS all the time but most of the time are not verified people with millions of followers on social media.

2. Hypocrisy: Remember Waters? She lives outside her district, has a $5 million dollar home and her district is among the worst in Los Angeles/Anaheim. We can attack them (Republicans) but they can't attack us back. During the Abolish ICE movement, the reason why the officials were there was to get people who used children for sex trafficking off the streets and into prison cells. And you protest that??

When Obama was in office he put children for trafficking as well. STOP THE BULLSHIT!! Stop it but of course the media won't put it on as top story, I wonder why.

There is over 2 million American children homeless, and over 40,000 American Veterans are homeless yet Democrats are not talking about them at all? If they care so much about people, WHERE ARE THEY?? Because they want to be pathetic and hate Trump every chance they get instead of maybe working with him like the Founding Fathers wanted them to do.

3. Much like communism. Many Liberal ideas are great on paper. "We're going to put the environment over the economy" Only a couple of very big flaws with that.

A) Do you realize that most of the pollution is coming from:

- Third world countries
- China and India

Those nations don't care about it and will ruin the planet long before we will.

AND B) The reason why Trump pulled us out of the Paris Accord is that there were too many regulations and an unbalanced way of payments meaning that countries like the USA, Netherlands, UK, France have to step up more even though we pollute less stuff instead of maybe teaching China and India how not to pollute.

The EPA still has to exist though because if it doesn't it's very dangerous because there has to be something or someone to regulate all of this pollution, hazy skies, etc.

Stop being in the ring with only Democrats or only Republicans. Learn both, don't favor one every single time. And then develop your own ideas and thoughts.

Get biased media out of here. Receive actual facts instead of leaning on a political party.

Pull your head out of your ass, clean the shit off and take a look and join us in reality before you humiliate yourselves both to us and in the polls.

Alberto Non-Update

Really, the only thing that changed since we spoke last has been the time and the position of our Subtropical Storm Alberto. It's beginning to move to the north and will curve around to the northwest and will make landfall on Monday between Biloxi and Panama City. The 5 day track is below.

The thunderstorms associated with Alberto is to the right of the storm and based on a radar image I saw, once the rain comes in here tonight it's going to stay for a while.

A flood watch has been issued for pretty much all the state of Florida and a tropical storm watch has been issued for Tampa, Pensacola, Mobile, Gulfport and New Orleans. Those will be upgraded to warnings later this afternoon.

The key messages and satellite image is below.

DISCUSSION... At this hour, Alberto is partially tropical and non-tropical. . A tropical cyclone is a warm cyclone with a warm core or mostly wet air all the way around the system. A sub-tropical cyclone is partially tropical and partially non-tropical. The tropical part as you've guessed contains of very heavy rain and moist conditions fueled by the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and a lot of thunderstorm activity is along and to the east of that as shown in the image below.

The non-tropical portion has an upper level trough of low pressure overhead and what that does is providing dry air a way into the system and that way the cyclone has a really tough time developing or getting lungs so to speak. Tropical cyclones tend to have high pressures overhead them instead of low pressures.

Imagine yourself being a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center and the first part of the forecasting process is to identify the center, that's the easy part of this. Very exposed in the center with just a few clouds in a circular shape.

You'll also notice that almost all the thunderstorms are along and to the east of the center so Cuba, Florida and Georgia are going to get very heavy amounts of rain from this and once again, rain is the primary threat with this. 

FORECAST... For the past three or four days, most of the models take Alberto and put the center between New Orleans and Panama City but remember from the discussion portion that people to the right of where Alberto makes landfall are going to have much greater impacts then to the left. 

Alberto will begin to move to the north and northwest with time. It has about 36 hours after Saturday afternoon with low winds in the atmosphere and moist air to work with to strengthen perhaps. 

Regardless, the odds of Alberto becoming a hurricane are relatively small and all the impacts will be to the east. In order from most to least likely, here are the threats:

Very heavy rain up to 12 inches in spots
Gusty winds, perhaps damaging in the central Gulf Coast
Tornadoes/waterspouts popping up (One or more tornado watches will be issued)
Lightning (Not very common in tropical cyclones)

If the models come to validate, Alberto will be making landfall sometime Monday and will slow down causing heavy rain in the southeast.

NASCAR Up For Sale Potentially. My Thoughts?

Two weeks ago, most of us read a report that NASCAR after being in control for 70 years with Bill France, Bill France Jr and Brian France might be up for sale amid loss of fan interest and TV ratings.


Disclaimer: I'm a old school NASCAR fan (anything up until about 10 years ago) and personally think there are several things wrong with how the sport is ran.

- Length of Races.

With the exception of some races (Daytona, Talladega, Darlington, Coke 600, Road Course Races,  and Richmond) people will not watch the sport for three or four hours at a time on Sunday afternoons. About 20 years ago, Dover and Rockingham addressed the issue by reducing their 500 mile races to 400 mile ones, since they were both one mile tracks, 100 laps were cut off.

I believe in order to get our generation to watch (High schoolers) to watch races on a constant basis they've seriously got to consider shortening some of these non historical races. Do you really want to watch 500 miles around Texas?

- NBC/FOX TV Deal

When NBC and FOX announced that they were going to reunite to cover the whole NASCAR season much like they did from 2001-06 many people were excited and rightfully so. The problem is that neither network shows that they really care about the viewers nor the race itself because both the networks have had their issues. With Jeff Burton's nearly nonexistent commentary and Darrell Waltrip's love affair with Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon's saying "look at this" every damn time something is happening.

NBC's problems
FOX's problems

Back in the day, race fans even if they were not going to the track knew they were going to get awesome coverage every weekend in the 1990's. ESPN's example is here

Skip around portions of the race and tell me even before that historic race you would not be excited to see it with them is delusional. It was like friends at a BBQ on Sundays. Sadly it is not that anymore.

TNN's example (This is presently known as the Paramount Network)

- Too much technology

How many times have you've seen a driver had a great race only to be messed up by fuel issues? In 2012, NASCAR announced that they were switching from carburetors to fuel injection systems. This didn't take long to have issues with drivers.

Kenny Wallace Duel
Tony Stewart Phoenix
Brad Keselowski Texas

At least three issues in the first seven races of 2012 and it occasionally pops back up. Also back in the 1980s instead of going directly to a mechanic or putting a computer chip back in, you get underneath the car and get grease on yourself and you would be proud as hell if you got the issue fixed yourself.

With technology, every teenager gets less and less interested in watching races or being a car guru. There are exceptions I'm aware.

- Season is too long

Unfortunately the video I intended to use for this example was deleted but Kyle Petty in 2012 said we have way too many races and I agree with the statement he made. There have been 36 races for the last 18 years and now NASCAR won't announce attendance figures, I wonder why...

In 2016, only 20 percent of seats were sold at the Brickyard, From 1994-2007, Indianapolis was the most attended track. What changed?

- The addition of Chicagoland and Kentucky to the schedule.
- In 2008, there was a major tire issue that NASCAR essentially made the race heat races themselves.
- Muggy weather in late July

I think for a sport like NASCAR to continue to the next generation, they need to cut down from 36 to about 28 races. Look at IndyCar/Formula 1 and NHRA are the greedy and return to a race track twice? They know better than to do that. What can go?

All of these racetracks have two races, one can be taken off
- Pocono
- Kansas
- Texas
- Phoenix
- Las Vegas
- Dover
- Spring Richmond
- Michigan

That leaves 28 races, the season can still start in February but either end in October or be stretched out to November still. 36 races are way too many especially cookie cutters like most of those above.

- Caution Clocks/Stages

Formally known as debris cautions, these stop the race after a certain number of laps to bunch up the field. I completely understand the reason why they do this with short attention spans but with NASCAR not doing this until now, why?? Here are examples where it ruined people's days for either a car brushing the wall or no debris.

Tony Stewart 2007 Phoenix
Kasey Kahne 2009 Fontana
Carl Edwards 2016 Homestead

In 1992, Kyle Petty led 484 of 492 laps at Rockingham, did they throw a debris caution once? Nope. Everyone wasn't as good as him that day and they went onto the next race, not cry and complain.

- Chase for the Cup/Points System

Take a look at Matt Kenseth's 2003 Championship season. 1 win but 25 top tens and an average finish of 10.6 but with ONLY one win many people cried and moaned until NASCAR announced that they were going to start with a playoff the following year.

Initially, the reception was mostly positive but quickly fell out of favor with changes in 2007, 2011 and 2014. My issues with those are:

- 16 drivers is an insane number, they need to go back to ten. Even in those ten, there are only three or four drivers realistically able to win the championship.

- The point system changes every other race it seems like. Hell, I'm 17 and if I can't keep up with it how is anybody going to understand?

How about go back to where it was from 1949-2003 and let the driver with the most points win the championship or the driver with the most wins? Not that hard. Keep it simple. The simpler, the better for new fans to understand.


- Also NASCAR can never make their mind about rules. Not going to get into detail but watch a race and you'll see.

- Toyota in, Dodge out

If NASCAR is an American sport then why is a Japanese manufacturer competing?? When Toyota was going to enter the top level in 2007, most people gave Toyota the black eye so to speak and rightfully so. Races in America=Only American cars right?

Dodge after a 15 year absence returned to NASCAR in 2001 with the advice of one of the best crew chiefs of all time, Ray Evernham. After little success though its first 11 years back and with Evernham, Petty and Penske all leaving the manufacturer, Dodge in 2012 stated it wouldn't be back in 2013.

I watched the announcement live and couldn't believe it. I will admit, Dodge is my favorite car but this hurt NASCAR racing in bigger ways then expected.


Closing Thoughts:

Everything evolves and after 70 years of control from the France family, it's time to experiment with new owners. Hopefully, the sport will start to see its faults and fix them one step at a time and will start catering to NASCAR fans, not TV networks or the average person channel surfing on the weekend.

NASCAR needs to take a long, hard look at itself or its next chapter can be far less than desirable.

Thoughts?

Flood Watch Issued Though Monday

* From the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of east central Florida, including
  the following areas, Coastal Volusia County, Indian River,
  Inland Volusia County, Martin, Northern Brevard County,
  Northern Lake County, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole,
  Southern Brevard County, Southern Lake County, and St. Lucie.

* From Saturday afternoon through Monday evening

* A prolonged period of heavy rainfall potential is expected
  across the area as Alberto moves northward through the Gulf of
  Mexico and pulls deep tropical moisture over east central
  Florida. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
  possible. Storm total rainfall amounts may reach up to 6 to 8
  inches in localized by Monday. This will cause a concern for
  flooding across east central Florida, especially in areas that
  received heavy rainfall earlier this month.

* Heavy rainfall will have the potential to cause flooding on
  roadways and in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive
  across flooded roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop.

First Storm Of The Year

Almost two weeks ago, I stated that there was a pre-season storm to be named the last three years. Make it four because..

We have a new subtropical storm and its name is Alberto. The first storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed east of Cancun in a very weak steering environment. That's important because in about a day, it's going to move more to the north and northwest and eventually make landfall in the gulf coast somewhere as a fully tropical storm.


DISCUSSION... At this hour, Alberto is partially tropical and non-tropical. . A tropical cyclone is a warm cyclone with a warm core or mostly wet air all the way around the system. A sub-tropical cyclone is partially tropical and partially non-tropical. The tropical part as you've guessed contains of very heavy rain and moist conditions fueled by the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and a lot of thunderstorm activity is along and to the east of that as shown in the image below.

 The non-tropical portion has an upper level trough of low pressure overhead and what that does is providing dry air a way into the system and that way the cyclone has a really tough time developing or getting lungs so to speak. Tropical cyclones tend to have high pressures overhead them instead of low pressures.

Imagine yourself being a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center and the first part of the forecasting process is to identify the center, that's the easy part of this. Very exposed in the center with just a few clouds in a circular shape.

You'll also notice that almost all the thunderstorms are along and to the east of the center so Cuba, Florida and Georgia are going to get very heavy amounts of rain from this and once again, rain is the primary threat with this. The key messages from the NHC are below.

Right now, an aircraft is en route to the storm and will be back with information regarding Alberto sometime tonight. After that, the computer models that predict storms will have a much more detailed understanding and will be able to produce more accurate forecasts.

FORECAST... For the past three or four days, most of the models take Alberto and put the center between New Orleans and Panama City but remember from the discussion portion that people to the right of where Alberto makes landfall are going to have much greater impacts then to the left. 

Alberto is sitting and spinning right now because there is nothing yet to pick him up and steer to the north but in the next day, Alberto will begin to move to the north and northwest with time. It has about 36 hours after Saturday afternoon with low winds in the atmosphere and moist air to work with to strengthen perhaps. 

Regardless, the odds of Alberto becoming a hurricane are relatively small and all the impacts will be to the east. In order from most to least likely, here are the threats:

Very heavy rain up to 12 inches in spots
Gusty winds, perhaps damaging in the central Gulf Coast
Tornadoes/waterspouts popping up (One or more tornado watches will be issued)
Lightning (Not very common in tropical cyclones)

If the models come to validate, Alberto will be making landfall sometime Monday and will slow down causing heavy rain in the southeast.

Update tomorrow.

ESPN, UFC Sign Another Deal

ESPN Release
UFC Release
ESPN Part 1 (UFC Fight Pass)

The UFC after open bidding and discussions with ESPN, FOX and NBC have elected to go with ESPN for a five year, $750 million contract. The network apparently outbid FOX by over $100 million a year and here's what ESPN will get from the UFC starting in January 2019.

-  12 UFC PPV Prelims
- 30 UFC Fight Night Cards
  - 10 on ESPN Networks
  - 20 on ESPN+ (Up 5-8 from what was first announced)

The move from FOX to ESPN pretty much confirms that FOX will be the new home of WWE Smackdown. Here's the questions I have left that are either responded vaguely or not answered at all:

- Will the UFC allow fight cards on either ABC or ESPNEWS? FOX on an average has had four cards on the network FOX every year since 2012. ESPNEWS could be an overflow channel much like FX or FXX was. More on that later.

- Does the same schedule apply to let's say the 2017 season? ESPN through four networks and ABC have a ton of programming already committed (September-March). The only relieving of pressure so to speak on ESPN's side is that a new ACC Network will launch in 2019. The ACC takes up windows on ESPNU and can create a consequence of this:

ESPN has quite a bit of late evening windows for the Pac-12, Mountain West and BYU football. With the ACC taking the 3:30pm ESPNU slot most weeks, the Mountain West can move their games from late evening ESPN/ESPN2 to there and that the UFC can start the cards at 10pm ET.

Another possibility is that the UFC will try to swing the schedule more to a summer dominated one meaning that more fights will be from April to August then the other months.

- Can/will ESPN move fight cards from Saturdays to either Fridays or Sundays? Let's take a look:

 Fridays: ESPN almost always has a NBA game(s) or a college football game during the fall and winter so that is less likely unless ESPN does less NBA doubleheaders or spreads the NBA out more throughout the year.

Sundays: Slightly more reasonable. Still the NFL doesn't really like counter programming from other networks so if any occur, maybe the Sunday of Labor Day weekend could be open, also the Sunday after Thanksgiving might be looked at.

ESPNEWS I think will be used as a prelim airing for UFC Fight Nights on ESPN. That way ESPN/ESPN2 doesn't have to lose a slot during Saturdays for college football and/or basketball. Let's take a look at the fall 2017 UFC Schedule and see what we can get.

9/2/17 UFC Fight Pass card.
9/9/17 UFC on PPV. No slots appear to be open so maybe 8pm ESPNEWS.
9/16/17 UFC Fight Night card. With this, I'm not really impressed with the fights so this would likely be a ESPN+ exclusive.
9/22/17 ESPN showed a MLB game and UFC was in Japan. The prelims could air on ESPNEWS and the main events could air on ESPN at 10 or 11pm.
9/30/17 NONE
10/7/17 UFC on PPV. ACC game was on ESPN2, move that over to the ACC Network and the prelims could start at 8pm on ESPN2
10/14/17 NONE
10/21/17  UFC Fight Pass card.
10/28/17 UFC Fight Night. Much like 9/16/17 was, a lower end FS1 event, likely to ESPN+
11/4/17 UFC on PPV. This appears to be another ESPNEWS airing. No ESPN/ESPN2 slot in primetime had a ACC game.
11/11/17 UFC Fight Night. No late night ESPN window was used for CFB. The Fight Night card could be targeted for a west coast site, prelims at 8pm on ESPNEWS and the main event could be at 10pm on ESPN.
11/18/17 UFC Fight Night. Possible late evening ESPN window. It was in Australia so I would just start the event at 10pm ET on ESPN.
11/25/17 UFC Fight Night. Overnight. Whole thing on ESPN or ESPN2.

Another thing to consider here, UFC and ESPN/Disney have completely opposite ends of the spectrum regarded to political correctness and family friendly images. Will Dana White tone down a little or will put ESPN back in its place if need be? Could ESPN allow for a little more edginess when what's typically there in Bristol?

It's a very intriguing partnership and the first event between the two is still eight months away. Get your snacks prepared and ready to go.

Potential Tropical Cyclone In The Atlantic?

Wow, we didn't even hit May 15th and we already have tropical mischief. That's unfortunate.

Anyway the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't officially start until June 1st but the last three years and four of the last six we've had a tropical system develop and get a name. The first name would be Alberto if this one develops.

Heavy rain is falling all across southern Florida at this hour. And that is going to be the main threat whether this turns into a named storm or not. Take a look at the upper left frame below.

The NHC as of this afternoon issued a tropical weather outlook on the system. It has a 40 percent of acquiring fully tropical or sub tropical characteristics for the next five days. A tropical cyclone is a warm cyclone with a warm core or mostly wet air all the way around the system. A sub-tropical cyclone is partially tropical and partially non-tropical. The typical part as you've guessed contains of very heavy rain and moist (green and blues on main panel) conditions fueled by the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and some thunderstorm activity is along and to the east of that.

The main panel is the water vapor. orange is dry air and blue and green is very moist of course.
But the non-tropical portion has an upper level trough of low pressure overhead and what that does is providing dry air (the oranges on main panel) a way into the system and that way the cyclone has a really tough time developing or getting lungs so to speak. Tropical cyclones tend to have high pressures overhead them instead of low pressures.

It is Florida and it is May so there is adequate moisture anyway but the million dollar question is, "Can it develop into a named storm before it gets to the coastline?" Both the GFS (Left Middle) and European Models (Bottom Left) (Two most used in figuring out tropical systems) both say not likely. They are within very good agreement with one another. 8pm Tuesday night and only a broad area of low pressure surrounds the Florida Panhandle.

Regardless of development, heavy rain maybe up to 6 inches in some cases are likely throughout the state in the next three to five days. Mostly welcome rain but we could see some minor street flooding if you get caught in a downpour.

Waves: Not high since 1. This would be a very weak storm if it develops into something and 2. It'll develop on the Gulf side of the peninsula.

Winds: Not high either. 20 to 25 mph maybe in gusts. Should be no problems with that too.

I'll come with an update tomorrow if it warrants. Just be aware that it's around but for the moment it doesn't look all that dangerous.

UFC/ESPN Sign a New Deal. Questions left answered.....

UFC Release
ESPN Release 

As you may have heard by now, the UFC has signed a long term deal with ESPN+ to provide up to 15 events a year starting in 2019. The events are:

- Dana White's Contender Series (Tuesday Nights in the summer)
- 15 UFC Events a year (All the Fight Paas cards now and some lower end FS1 fights)
- Weigh In's
- Classic fights, best of's, compliations, etc..
- Exclusive content before PPV bouts


The deal, thanks to the LA Times is $ 150 million/year for 5 years. Also according to them, the linear/higher end portion of the contract is still being discussed with FOX and NBC. A few things/
observations:

1. If the report re: NBC involved is correct, then how many events does NBC get? The article stated that nearly 20 events a year are still unaccounted for. Does NBC get a even ten? Do those
events schedule around FOX's other commitments on weekends?

2. FOX and NBC do work together in NASCAR to a degree so this isn't 100% shocking but I couldn't have pictured that NBC would have room to carry UFC cards with the broadcast network and only
one, 24 hour, national sports network. Particuarly when NBC has this already.

Notre Dame football
NASCAR XFinity and Monster Energy Series
NHL (Tuesdays/Wednesdays/Sundays)
IndyCar (A lot of those races occur on Saturday nights)
NFL (Sunday Night)
Cycling (Tour de France)
Olympics (August 2020)
Premier League (Most occur on mornings though)
Hockey East (Friday Nights January-March)
IMSA (Coming in 2019)

Good news for NBC, a large amount of UFC programming will occur at night while most of the motorsports will take place during the daytime hours. Not as congested as FOX but still could be many 10pm ET fights. Not suitable for a lot of fans to wait all day.

More will be written later when the deal with FOX and likely NBC are done in ink. Back to ESPN:

Can they air events on ESPN (The TV Network)?: Nope, doesn't look like it. I honestly don't blame Dana White here because it's very rare for ESPN to be open on Saturday nights at any point of the year.

Also, a possible indirect reason why ESPN and UFC didn't sign a higher end deal is that the fact that ESPN showcases the Top Boxing Champions on weekends frequently (I'm not a fan of Boxing
so I can't tell you much of the organization) but with that, maybe the UFC didn't like the possibility of going against another fighting championship. Just a personal thought.


ESPN has been widely panned for not treating MMA/UFC as a real, legitimate sport (As Dana actually pointed out in 2011) Several years ago, there was a show produced by ESPN called MMA Live. It aired on Fridays at 1am and often delayed even further with live action such as college football or arena football.

With the increased exposure that ESPN has given the UFC with more discussions and interviews with fighters on SportsCenter and other shows, this is ESPN's chance to live up to their word and air/promote that biggest growing sport out there.

Moderate Risk Today

Haven't posted in over a moth so I own y'all one..

Complicated forecast today over the plain states. A moderate risk for portions of Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma though this evening. Storms are erupting west of Wichita and Enid and will move further south and east as the afternoon progresses.

Here are the tornado watches: Both are out until 10pm.

Hail Picture

In 12 years of living in Florida, I have never seen hail before. Today, I can mark it off the list. It was ping pong ball size where I was at. Crazy stuff.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Daytona Beach and Surrounding Areas

A severe thunderstorm capable of producing hail up to golfball size in diameter is across the Tiger Bay State Forest. If you're anywhere in the Daytona Beach area, this is a dangerous situation. Be inside and don't be in a car (If all at possible)

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
532 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Volusia County in east central Florida...

* Until 600 PM EDT

* At 532 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over DeLand
  Airport, or near DeLeon Springs, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
           roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach, DeLand and South Daytona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a
place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a small interior
room.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay
away from windows.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for east central
Florida.

Highlands Storm Likely Producing A Tornado

A "Donut hole" in the radar shows a very likely tornado east of Sebring moving into the Kissimmee State Park and northern Okeechobee county as well.

No damage reported so yet in Avon Park or Sebring, which is great news since the two cities are quite populated.

Tornado Warning Highlands

A storm possibly producing a tornado near Sebring will move to Okeechobee county once it exits. Strongest rotation we've seen today.

3:15pm Situation

Tornado Watch remains in effect until 7pm for most of the northern half of the state. Conditions are still favorable for tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

The Current Radar:

Break down by NWS Office:

TAMPA: Strong line of storms along Tampa and Bradenton, those will move inland into Sebring and south of Lakeland within the hour.

MELBOURNE: Two severe thunderstorm warnings, one SW of Orlando and one east of there. Both will go very near the Space Coast and Port Canaveral. Other showers were across Lake, Volusia and Seminole counties.

JACKSONVILLE: Other storms are developing into severe storms northwest of Jacksonville and Gainesville. The cold front is far northwest of there. Wouldn't be shocked to see other convection here pretty soon.

The threat continues. In several more hours, temperatures will cool down and a northern breeze will take over and everything will be fine after that and weather looks a whole lot better Tomorrow.

Tornado Warnings for Orlando

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
232 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Lake County in east central Florida...

* Until 300 PM EDT

* At 231 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Groveland, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Lake County, including the following locations:
  Minneola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2857 8195 2863 8166 2859 8165 2850 8166
      2847 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 254DEG 48KT 2853 8187

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Combs
Tornado Warning
FLC095-117-201900-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0003.180320T1826Z-180320T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Seminole County in east central Florida...
  West central Orange County in east central Florida...

* Until 300 PM EDT

* At 224 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Windermere, moving east northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...College Park, Oak Ridge, Pine Hills, Winter
  Park, Azalea Park, Goldenrod, Union Park.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Edgewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2846 8162 2861 8162 2869 8124 2848 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 258DEG 30KT 2852 8155

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

Tornado Watch For Florida

There was a tornado warning for Daytona about 90 minutes ago, it had since moved out and didn't cause a tornado as far as we know.

However a tornado watch has been issued for most of northern and central Florida until 7pm tonight. The atmosphere looks loaded for a few tornadoes with a couple strong possible, damaging winds to 70mph and large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter are all in the forecast.

All modes of severe weather are likely within the watch area. Pay very close attention to the weather this afternoon. If a warning is issued, don't hesitate to take action.

Here's the watch:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0017_radar.gif

So I would like to tell you that it's over, it's actually just began.

Dangerous Day Today

* Not much has changed in our forecast for this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for most of the northern Florida, that includes Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Gainesville, Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. The maps is below.

1st Image: Overall Risk
2nd Image: Tornado Risk
3rd Image: Wind Risk
4th Image: Hail Risk

You can see the rough line of division is Interstate 4 (Daytona, Orlando and Tampa points north) HOWEVER thunderstorms do not know where these lines are, this is just a guideline. It doesn't indicate what could be in one county and not another, that's what a warning is for. Again, watches and warnings are much more important than this.

This is actually not a slam dunk forecast, but this is a very complex situation still. And the mesoscale (Small scale) features REALLY determine the severity of the outbreak and that we won't know until later today.

NOT every county in the enhanced/slight risk area will report severe weather but ANY county in it could. That is why it's critical to have a plan in place for today.

Don't cancel any plans for tonight or change them just yet but if you have any, make sure you're very aware of the situation at that very moment.

* Setup: This morning, a low pressure system is over Tennessee, a very favorable quadrant for severe weather (Southeast). Wind shear (Winds changing with height) are moderately strong so we're not expecting a big tornado threat unlike last night across Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee but a few tornadoes could still happen. Strong (Damaging) winds are a real possibility if not a probability at some point this afternoon. An enhanced risk means that there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point in the risk zone. That might seem low but for severe weather, that;s up there. Isolated hail (Ice Pellets) are possible but not widespread because of the mid-levels being relatively warm core.

* Timing: We thought it was going to be morning time for Daytona Beach but now it appears to be early afternoon. More precise windows are below
Jacksonville: 9am-2pm
Gainesville: 10am-2pm
Daytona Beach: 12pm-5pm
Orlando: 2-7pm
Tampa: 3-7pm
Sebring: 3-8pm
Melbourne: 3-8pm

Please give some elbow room (Allow an hour or two on either side of this.)

* Main Threats:
Damaging Winds (Especially in microbursts) up to 60 mph possible
Hail to 1.5 Inches in the strongest storms
Frequent Lightning
Heavy Rain
A few tornadoes possible

From NWS Melbourne:

Enhanced Threat of Severe Weather Across East Central Florida
This Afternoon and Evening...

A squall line is expected to develop ahead of a cold front and
move into areas northwest of I-4 early this afternoon. The line
will push southward with a potential secondary band of showers and
storms farther south over the Gulf moving rapidly eastward. This
will lead to numerous showers and storms pushing quickly toward
the east-northeast across east central Florida around 55 to 60 mph
through mid to late afternoon. This activity will then shift
south and offshore of the Treasure Coast by late evening.

Strong to possibly severe storms will occur with this activity.
Damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 70 mph and frequent lightning
strikes will be the main threat from any severe storms, but large
hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Make sure you
have a way of receiving timely severe weather watches and
warnings, should any be issued for the area.

* Misconceptions:
Are risk categories important? On the day of the event, not really. Thunderstorms don't know where those lines are. Just a guideline. Don't get too carried away by it.

Are mobile homes safe? NO!!! The reason why is that air can get underneath a mobile home and flip it. Mobile homes are not safe AT ALL during a weather situation. Evacuate them as soon as possible and find a more substantial shelter. Every person living in them should have a plan on what to do, whether it's 3am, 3pm, weekday, weekend, or holiday.

Are warning for entire counties? Also a no, warnings for not for entire counties, there are for sections of counties. Storm based warnings were adopted 10 years ago by the NWS to reduce the area warned. THERE IS NO REASON to warn an entire county. It does hospitals a disservice by stopping surgeries during a tornado warning 30-40 miles away in some cases and not moving towards the area. Also it created a false alarms for schools and citizens alike so when you hear a warning iss issued for where you live, you want to take it seriously.

Storms can't pack a punch early in the morning... Oh yes they can. Some of the most imfamous storms caused by damaging winds happened in the morning hours. The April 27 2011 outbreak over Alabama had a widespread wind event in the morning. Also several events in 2012 and 2013 rolled though Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maryland during the time frame. Severe storms can impact areas any time they feel like when conditions are correct.

Current Radar:

Pretty quiet at the moment. The storms that do develop in the Big Bend Region of the state (Near the Gulf) are the ones we really to watch out.


I can almost guarantee that we will be under some sort of weather watch (Not sure on Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado) later this morning as conditions destabilize.

This is a serious situation. Pay very close attention to the latest developments to it. if a warning is issued, don't hesitate to take action.

Plan now, make the decisions now, try not to get caught up in traffic, make decisions with respect to your family, house and where you work okay?

There is no reason to be scared. just follow along if a warning is issued, execute your plan. That is all.

* Links To Follow:
NWS Melbourne Twitter
NWS Melbourne Facebook
My Twitter
WFTV (Channel 9 Orlando) Weather
What To Do During A Severe Thunderstorm

Eastern Alabama Tornado (Large and Destructive)

Directly from the NWS Office in Birmingham

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
906 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALC029-200245-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180320T0245Z/
Cleburne AL-
906 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY...
       
At 905 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Mars Hills, or 12 miles west of Buchanan, moving east at
40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fruithurst, Muscadine, Mars Hills, Liberty Hill, Oak Level,
Sweetwater Lake and Coleman Lake And Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 8564 3377 8564 3378 8562 3379 8562
      3379 8560 3380 8560 3380 8559 3384 8559
      3385 8564 3388 8564 3388 8560 3389 8560
      3389 8553 3392 8553 3392 8539 3369 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 273DEG 35KT 3380 8541

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

87/GRANTHAM