Beryl 7/6/18 and Potential Cyclone off NC Coast?

Beryl became the first hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season overnight and there has been changes to the initial forecast at the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

And we have a disturbance that could be a tropical depression or named storm in the next few days.

Up above is the 5 day forecast for Beryl. A couple things to note:

1. As you will see in the satellite image in a minute, Beryl is a very small storm comapred to normal standards.

2. The forecast does not have Beryl making it though Wednesday. What does that mean? Here's the deal:

A. It will engage in either Hispaniola or Cuba, making it weak and with its size, those islands that have mountains and hills will tear the circulation up.

B. Shear (Wind in the air) gets control of Beryl and ripping it to pieces before it gets to those bigger islands.

C. It dodges both shear and the islands and becomes a threat toward Jamaica or the Cayman Islands in the middle of the next week.

I'm leaning toward A at the moment. Certainly Cuba is a big enough island to tear apart a storm, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also large.

Past five days if/whatever is left will be headed north near the Bahamas as a weather pattern will pick it up and make it turn north and northeast. When it does that, the timing for the turn will be critical to whether effects will be felt in one nation or the other.

Of course, none of that matters if Beryl doesn't survive.

What you are looking at is the satellite image. If you look at it closely, right under the cloud break below the outflow, that's where the center of it is. It hasn't popped out an eye yet (Typically when hurricanes get higher at category 1 range, an eye will start to be seen, it hasn't happened yet)

HERE AND NOW

Strength: 80 mph, category 1
Movement: West at 15 mph (It's moving briskly)
Location: Near 1,000 miles away from Barbados and St. Lucia
Intensity: 994 mb (The lower the pressure, stronger or broader the storm is)

IMPACT
This will greatly depend on whether Beryl can make it to the Lesser Antilles or not. Either way, rain and wind will be on the rise for islands like Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, Barbados and others.

It is looking more likely that it will make it though those islands as a tropical disturbance. Water won't be the concern with this (Regarding water rise) but rain and wind could be (at least rain)

Beryl will roll though the islands Sunday night and Monday. Hurricane/Tropical Storm watches could be put up later today if required.

NORTH CAROLINA FEATURE

A cluster of thunderstorms has a high chance (80%) of forming in the next five days. It will drift toward the Carolinas this weekend and might sit and spin for a day or two next week before it gets picked up and taken out to sea.