NOT every county in the enhanced risk area will report severe weather but ANY county in it could. That is why it's critical to have a plan in place for tomorrow.
Don't cancel any plans for tomorrow or change them just yet but if you have any, make sure you're very aware of the situation at that very moment.
* Setup: By Tomorrow morning, a low pressure system will be over Tennessee, a very favorable quadrant for severe weather (Southeast). Wind shear (Winds changing with height) are not terribly strong so we're not expecting a big tornado threat unlike today across Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee but a tornado or two could still happen. Strong (Damaging) winds are a real possibility if not a probability at some point tomorrow afternoon. An enhanced risk means that there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point in the risk zone. That might seem low but for severe weather, that;s up there. Isolated hail (Ice Pellets) are possible but not widespread because of the mid-levels being relatively warm core.
* Timing: Morning time for Daytona Beach. More precise windows are below
Jacksonville: 4-8am
Gainesville: 6-10am
Daytona Beach: 7-11am
Orlando: 10am-2pm
Tampa: 10pm-2pm
Sebring: 12-4pm
Melbourne: 11am-3pm
Please give some elbow room (Allow an hour or two on either side of this.)
* Main Threats:
Damaging Winds (Especially in microbursts) up to 60 mph possible
Hail to 1.5 Inches in the strongest storms
Frequent Lightning
Heavy Rain
A tornado or two possible
* Misconceptions:
Are risk categories important? On the day of the event, not really. Thunderstorms don't know where those lines are. Just a guideline. Don't get too carried away by it.
Are mobile homes safe? NO!!! The reason why is that air can get underneath a mobile home and flip it. Mobile homes are not safe AT ALL during a weather situation. Evacuate them as soon as possible and find a more substantial shelter. Every person living in them should have a plan on what to do, whether it's 3am, 3pm, weekday, weekend, or holiday.
Are warning for entire counties? Also a no, warnings for not for entire counties, there are for sections of counties. Storm based warnings were adopted 10 years ago by the NWS to reduce the area warned. THERE IS NO REASON to warn an entire county. It does hospitals a disservice by stopping surgeries during a tornado warning 30-40 miles away in some cases and not moving towards the area. Also it created a false alarms for schools and citizens alike so when you hear a warning iss issued for where you live, you want to take it seriously.
Storms can't pack a punch early in the morning... Oh yes they can. Some of the most imfamous storms caused by damaging winds happened in the morning hours. The April 27 2011 outbreak over Alabama had a widespread wind event in the morning. Also several events in 2012 and 2013 rolled though Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maryland during the time frame. Severe storms can impact areas any time they feel like when conditions are correct.
I can almost guarantee that we will be under some sort of weather watch (Not sure on Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado) Tomorrow morning as conditions destabilize.
Plan now, make the decisions now, try not to get caught up in traffic, make decisions with respect to your family, house and where you work okay?
There is no reason to be scared. just follow along if a warning is issued, execute your plan. That is all.
* Links To Follow:
NWS Melbourne Twitter
NWS Melbourne Facebook
My Twitter
WFTV (Channel 9 Orlando) Weather
What To Do During A Severe Thunderstorm
Another discussion tomorrow.
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