Severe Weather Sunday??

Conditions can come together for a possible episode of severe weather somewhere on the Florida Peninsula over Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Depends on which model you look at. The two big ones have different answers:

... BUT NICE TOMORROW/SATURDAY: While most of the attention will be focused on the Sunday afternoon/evening event, the good news is that we will enjoy some calm weather for the next 48 hours. We are starting the day mostly in the 40s, but we rise into the 60s tomorrow afternoon. Pretty much the same deal on Saturday. The race at Daytona International Speedway Saturday night still could have some showers but no organized storms expected.

GFS: 

The first image you see is the GFS (American) model at 2pm Sunday. I know it looks foreign but the main screen is the winds in the upper part of the atmosphere (20,000 feet) and they're screaming in South Georgia/North Florida. The upper left is the CAPE (The energy) and those numbers don't look impressive which is a good thing. The Left center is the helicity (The amount of rotation a storm is able to intake) is lined up in Northeast Florida (around Jacksonville) and the lower left is the 6 hour total rain which is again centered over North Florida and south Georgia.

The second image is at 8pm Sunday night. The upper air pattern is the same (slightly positive tilt to it), the instability dominant offshore, the helicity moves out to the Carolinas with the surface feature and the cold front starting to come through. 

If this comes correct, I don't think central Florida faces a severe weather threat, rather that would be in north Florida and Georgia.

NAM:

The first image you see is the NAM (North American) model at 2pm Sunday. The NAM is the more aggressive of the two when it comes to the potential. The main screen is the winds in the upper part of the atmosphere (20,000 feet) and they're not as impressive but still blowing across the southeast. The upper left is the CAPE (The energy) and those numbers look impressive for thunderstorms on Sunday. The Left center is the helicity (The amount of rotation a storm is able to intake) is in a line across Jacksonville/Gainsville and the lower left is the the projected radar which is again centered over North Florida and south Georgia. This time the NAM is trying to get supercells out ahead of a line and if is that way, the storms developing have a shot to go severe and produce a tornado or two.

The second image is at 8pm Sunday night. The upper air pattern is the same (slightly positive tilt to it), the instability all across the southern two thirds of Florida, the helicity still in Florida with the surface feature and the cold front starting to come through. 

The third image is at 2pm Sunday with the significant tornado parameter (STP). Anything over 1.5 is quite noticeable and pockets over 1.5 exist over the western part of the state.

If this comes correct, Central Florida faces at the minimum some gusty winds and nasty weather if not a small tornado threat. 

One burning question is if the SPC (Storm Prediction center) will issue a forecast category for their day 3 convective outlook. It'll come out at roughly 2-3am later tonight.

Here are some severe weather indicatiors for Sunday evening for Orlando from the 18Z NAM

CAPE 1,717 j/kg
0-3 storm relative helicity 306 m2/s2
STP 2.1 units
Supercell Index 10.5

The timing is the most important because if the dynamics are there during the daylight hours, all of the energy will be available but if it's too far north or waits until nighttime, maybe it'll just be a marginal day. We shall see. Very important you guys have a tornado plan in place. No need to get anxious about it just yet. Still questions persist of when/how/where/why, but there is a chance there could be a severe weather event in the state Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, so keep an eye on these discussions as we get closer to the event. Remember also this is race weekend at St. Petersburg, so thousands of people will be out on the streets.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday should be much like Tomorrow. Lows in the 40s with highs in the 60s, clear skies with a north breeze. Unseasonably cool for sure.

FIRE WEATHER: One more day of low humidity will keep the fire danger/outlook high across the area. Don't do anything stupid out there and if a fire develops, it could spread pretty rapidly particularly inland.