Change of timing of Severe Weather Sunday Now Into Monday?

SATURDAY: Weather should be very nice. high near 70 and if you're out during Bike Week or going to the Supercross race, have gun and don't expect any issues.

SUNDAY:
The NAM model is considerably slower this run than in past runs so for now the window for storms (strong, a few severe) could be for noon Sunday to 2pm Monday. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any supercells Sunday/Sunday night have at least an isolated tornado threat. If you're at the IndyCar race at St. Petersburg don't expect the race to get it in Sunday.

2pm Sunday: The storms should begin first across the panhandle and south Florida. Central Florida could start off the day pretty dry.

8pm Sunday: A line of thunderstorms should develop across the panhandle (the helicity/wind shear) values are co-lined with the line, (a tornado or two can occur there)

2am Monday: The line is slow to get through so storms can still go severe along and ahead of the main line. It could approach near Jacksonville by this time.

8am Monday: The line will be near the Interstate 4 corridor by rush hour. Some strong storms are likely. pay attention especially to the overnight storms

2pm Monday: The storms should progress out of the state by then, it'll be noticeably cooler by Monday night/Tuesday with a north wind.

The main threats will be

• Damaging Winds (Sunday night into Monday)
• Lightning (Sunday-Monday)
• Isolated tornadoes (Any storms that develop out ahead of a line and in the line itself across the panhandle)
• Heavy rain

Timing

• Isolated storms from 2-9pm Sunday and the line from 2am-noon Monday. These are windows and could slightly change

Cities/Locations

• North Florida
• South Georgia
• Jacksonville
• Orlando
• Tampa
• Daytona Beach
• Tallahassee
• Valdosta
• Brunswick
• Melbourne
• Ocala
• Gainsville

What We Know:

• Storms will develop Sunday night into Monday morning

What We Don't Know:

• Exactly what locations will be hit
• Concrete hours of threat of storms
• Difference in models

There is no reason to worry/panic. Just have a plan and you'll be okay. Have a way of getting a warning (Other than here) and make sure people know.

The SPC will issue a Day 2 outlook early tomorrow morning, we'll see if they introduce a slight risk for us or not.

Another update Tomorrow morning.