Dangerous Day Today

* Not much has changed in our forecast for this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for most of the northern Florida, that includes Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Gainesville, Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. The maps is below.

1st Image: Overall Risk
2nd Image: Tornado Risk
3rd Image: Wind Risk
4th Image: Hail Risk

You can see the rough line of division is Interstate 4 (Daytona, Orlando and Tampa points north) HOWEVER thunderstorms do not know where these lines are, this is just a guideline. It doesn't indicate what could be in one county and not another, that's what a warning is for. Again, watches and warnings are much more important than this.

This is actually not a slam dunk forecast, but this is a very complex situation still. And the mesoscale (Small scale) features REALLY determine the severity of the outbreak and that we won't know until later today.

NOT every county in the enhanced/slight risk area will report severe weather but ANY county in it could. That is why it's critical to have a plan in place for today.

Don't cancel any plans for tonight or change them just yet but if you have any, make sure you're very aware of the situation at that very moment.

* Setup: This morning, a low pressure system is over Tennessee, a very favorable quadrant for severe weather (Southeast). Wind shear (Winds changing with height) are moderately strong so we're not expecting a big tornado threat unlike last night across Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee but a few tornadoes could still happen. Strong (Damaging) winds are a real possibility if not a probability at some point this afternoon. An enhanced risk means that there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point in the risk zone. That might seem low but for severe weather, that;s up there. Isolated hail (Ice Pellets) are possible but not widespread because of the mid-levels being relatively warm core.

* Timing: We thought it was going to be morning time for Daytona Beach but now it appears to be early afternoon. More precise windows are below
Jacksonville: 9am-2pm
Gainesville: 10am-2pm
Daytona Beach: 12pm-5pm
Orlando: 2-7pm
Tampa: 3-7pm
Sebring: 3-8pm
Melbourne: 3-8pm

Please give some elbow room (Allow an hour or two on either side of this.)

* Main Threats:
Damaging Winds (Especially in microbursts) up to 60 mph possible
Hail to 1.5 Inches in the strongest storms
Frequent Lightning
Heavy Rain
A few tornadoes possible

From NWS Melbourne:

Enhanced Threat of Severe Weather Across East Central Florida
This Afternoon and Evening...

A squall line is expected to develop ahead of a cold front and
move into areas northwest of I-4 early this afternoon. The line
will push southward with a potential secondary band of showers and
storms farther south over the Gulf moving rapidly eastward. This
will lead to numerous showers and storms pushing quickly toward
the east-northeast across east central Florida around 55 to 60 mph
through mid to late afternoon. This activity will then shift
south and offshore of the Treasure Coast by late evening.

Strong to possibly severe storms will occur with this activity.
Damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 70 mph and frequent lightning
strikes will be the main threat from any severe storms, but large
hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Make sure you
have a way of receiving timely severe weather watches and
warnings, should any be issued for the area.

* Misconceptions:
Are risk categories important? On the day of the event, not really. Thunderstorms don't know where those lines are. Just a guideline. Don't get too carried away by it.

Are mobile homes safe? NO!!! The reason why is that air can get underneath a mobile home and flip it. Mobile homes are not safe AT ALL during a weather situation. Evacuate them as soon as possible and find a more substantial shelter. Every person living in them should have a plan on what to do, whether it's 3am, 3pm, weekday, weekend, or holiday.

Are warning for entire counties? Also a no, warnings for not for entire counties, there are for sections of counties. Storm based warnings were adopted 10 years ago by the NWS to reduce the area warned. THERE IS NO REASON to warn an entire county. It does hospitals a disservice by stopping surgeries during a tornado warning 30-40 miles away in some cases and not moving towards the area. Also it created a false alarms for schools and citizens alike so when you hear a warning iss issued for where you live, you want to take it seriously.

Storms can't pack a punch early in the morning... Oh yes they can. Some of the most imfamous storms caused by damaging winds happened in the morning hours. The April 27 2011 outbreak over Alabama had a widespread wind event in the morning. Also several events in 2012 and 2013 rolled though Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maryland during the time frame. Severe storms can impact areas any time they feel like when conditions are correct.

Current Radar:

Pretty quiet at the moment. The storms that do develop in the Big Bend Region of the state (Near the Gulf) are the ones we really to watch out.


I can almost guarantee that we will be under some sort of weather watch (Not sure on Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado) later this morning as conditions destabilize.

This is a serious situation. Pay very close attention to the latest developments to it. if a warning is issued, don't hesitate to take action.

Plan now, make the decisions now, try not to get caught up in traffic, make decisions with respect to your family, house and where you work okay?

There is no reason to be scared. just follow along if a warning is issued, execute your plan. That is all.

* Links To Follow:
NWS Melbourne Twitter
NWS Melbourne Facebook
My Twitter
WFTV (Channel 9 Orlando) Weather
What To Do During A Severe Thunderstorm